Is HP's play for Palm about tablets?

In fact, HP's (NYSE: HPQ) 1.2 billion play for Palm is shaping up to be more about tablets than smartphones. The smartphone business, which is quickly becoming super saturated with the likes notebook makers such as Dell, Lenovo and Acer, is one both HP and Palm are separately struggling in. But as Technology Business Research points out, the tablet computing space hasn't been well defined by any single manufacturer or operating system. Could Palm's WebOS combined with HP's extensive PC manufacturing expertise give it the leading position?

The scuttlebutt this week has to do with whether HP will drop tablet plans to incorporate Windows 7 and go with the WebOS. IMS Research principal analyst Anna Hunt expects HP to employ WebOS in favor of Windows 7 OS, citing the high cost and potential strain on the processor.

Moreover, Palm's webOS, despite gaining little traction in the smartphone market, is liked by developers as it offers many similarities to Linux. The platform just didn't have the volume to woo developers en mass. "If HP can create a compelling tablet offering that people are willing to buy, the barriers to entry for developers might be fairly minimal," wrote IMS Research analyst Chris Schreck. Moreover, HP has a commanding presence in the enterprise market, which should be attractive to developers.

Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst with J Gold Associates, points out that since tablets are mainly front ends to the Internet, there is a big play for HP to deploy many cloud-based services from which it can generate revenue. I can only imagine the cloud-based services HP can dream up for the enterprise

Think enterprise people. This was first and foremost an enterprise move by HP. Consumers are fun and it's fun to write about and think about pretty things for them... but the big money is in the enterprise. The value add is for the enterprise.

Books in the Age of the iPad — Defined by Content

As the publishing industry wobbles and Kindle sales jump, book romanticists cry themselves to sleep. But really, what are we shedding tears over?

We’re losing the throwaway paperback.
The airport paperback.
The beachside paperback.

We’re losing the dredge of the publishing world: disposable books. The book printed without consideration of form or sustainability or longevity. The book produced to be consumed once and then tossed. The book you bin when you’re moving and you need to clean out the closet.

These are the first books to go. And I say it again, good riddance.

Once we dump this weight we can prune our increasingly obsolete network of distribution. As physicality disappears, so too does the need to fly dead trees around the world.

You already know the potential gains: edgier, riskier books in digital form, born from a lower barrier-to-entry to publish. New modes of storytelling. Less environmental impact. A rise in importance of editors. And, yes — paradoxically — a marked increase in the quality of things that do get printed.

From 2003-2009 I spent six years trying to make beautiful printed books. Six years. Focused on printed books. In the 00s.

And I loved it. I loved the process. The finality of the end product. I loved the sexy-as-hell tactility of those little ink and paper bricks. But I can tell you this: the excitement I feel about the iPad as a content creator, designer and publisher — and the potential it brings — must be acknowledged. Acknowledged bluntly and with perspective.

With the iPad we finally have a platform for consuming rich-content in digital form. What does that mean? To understand just why the iPad is so exciting we need to think about how we got here.

I want to look at where printed books stand in respect to digital publishing, why we historically haven't read long-form text on screens and how the iPad is wedging itself in the middle of everything. In doing so I think we can find the line in the sand to define when content should be printed or digitized.

This is a conversation for books-makers, web-heads, content-creators, authors and designers. For people who love beautifully made things. And for the storytellers who are willing to take risks and want to consider the most appropriate shape and media for their yarns.

The entire piece is a very interesting read. If you are in any way interested in mobile technology or the future of the printed word you should head over there and read it... the future is defined by content.

How many Kindles have really been sold? (And other interesting tidbits about ebooks) - From Michael Mace

How many Kindles are really in use? As far as I can tell, Amazon hasn't released any Kindle device sales figures, other than a quote referring to "millions" of users. Several analysts have jumped on the use of the plural as evidence that at least two million Kindles have been sold. But I think the BISG survey doesn't support that. Here's my math:

--About 2% of book buyers have ebooks and/or ebook devices.

--About a third of them have Kindles (that's 0.67% of active book buyers).

--If 0.67% of book buyers in the US is two million people, then there are 300 million active book buyers in the US. That is the entire US population, including infants and people who don't like books. I don't know what the base of active book buyers is in the US, but my guess is it's not over 200 million, meaning the installed base of Kindles would be about 1.3 million.

It's tricky to play with survey results when the percentages are this small -- the margins of error become very significant. But for now I think the BISG survey raises some questions, and I'm not willing to accept the two million figure for the Kindle installed base without some more rigorous evidence to support it.


Other tidbits

BISG is not going to release all of the information from the survey (that goes only to the companies that paid for it). So I took as many notes as I could during the presentation. Here's what I captured:

Ebooks are somewhat cheaper than hardcovers
On average, an ebook costs $6.25 less than a hardcover book. This is a huge issue to the book publishing industry, which worries that ebook sales will cannibalize hardcover book sales. My comment: Of course they do, get over it. The thing publishers should be looking at is the much higher margins they make per ebook sold. I don't know of many industries that resist moving to a higher-margin product, but publishing appears to be the grand exception. Of course, the thing worrying publishers is the decline of independent bookstores, and they're afraid ebooks will accelerate that. But the decline of the bookstore has almost nothing to do with ebooks -- it's being driven by online sales of paper books and predation by retail chains.

Demographics
-Ebook buyers are 51% men (compared to 58% women for paper books).
-Ebook buyers are higher income than paper book buyers. Not a lot, but significantly higher income. No surprise there -- most poor people can't afford several hundred dollars for an ebook reader. Betcha they don't buy a lot of hardcover books either.

Cannibalization
Among ebook buyers, 11% no longer buy any paper books. 8% buy mostly ebooks, and about 30% prefer to buy ebooks. So about half of ebook users prefer ebooks to paper books. That's actually a lower percentage than I expected for something that is supposed to take over the world. But remember, half of ebook users are reading on PCs. What I really want to know is the percentage of Kindle users who prefer ebooks; that'll tell us how satisfied Kindle users are.

Preferred device used to read ebooks
-PC: 47%
-Kindle: 32% (and rising in later waves of the survey)
-iPhone: 11%
-iPod Touch: 10% Hmmmm! iPod Touch really is a PDA.
-Other smartphones (including Blackberry) 9%
-Netbooks 9%
-Sony Reader 8%
-Barnes & Noble Nook 8% (the BISG folks noted that Nook was just starting to sell at this point; they believe some users confused Barnes & Noble ebooks with the Nook device)

Genres of ebooks
-General fiction, 31%
-Mystery 28%
-How To 25% (but #1 over Christmas)
-Science Fiction
-Biography
-Business

Some folks are going crazy over ebooks... that's why I decided to start looking into these a bit more (indirect request from a client as well).

As Michael points out in this excerpt above... perhaps the whole thing is being overstated... exaggerated... blown out of proportion.

But what for?

(With this post I started a new category ... "Truth In Numbers")