If you have ever spent time with someone under 18, or have fond memories of your own raucous youth, you will no doubt appreciate how changeable in affection a young person can be. 

What might be the hottest trend one day can quickly become “so last season.” 

 

So how does this key, yet fickle, demographic impact the mobile phone market?

 

 

According to a recent study conducted by Harris Interactive, among a nationally representative sample of young people between the ages of 10 and 18, nearly three out of four (72%) indicated that they use a mobile phone.  The US Census Bureau estimates the population between the age of 10 and 18 at approximately 41.5M, which translates into about 29.9M “millennial” mobile phone users.  Their impact is significant and cannot be ignored!

 

So how have mobile phone manufacturers done keeping up with the ever-changing tastes of this influential demographic?

 

Microsoft crashed and burned with the Kin One and Kin Two, a smartphone aimed at teens. Some analysts estimate that the Microsoft/Verizon tandem sold an insanely disappointing 506 phones.  That is not a typo – only 506 sold!  After two months, Microsoft recognized its failure and killed the Kin experiment.  Microsoft put far too much focus on the data-hungry social media capabilities of their phone, forgetting that teens primarily use their mobile phone for phone and text.  In fact, the study mentioned earlier suggests that only 17% of teens use their mobile phone to access the internet, including sites like Facebook and Twitter.  Lest we not forget that mobile data plans are expensive, especially with mobile carriers starting to do away with the "all you can eat" unlimited plans.

 

So which brands are capturing the "hearts and minds" of the youth market?

 

It should come as no surprise that the same brand that has dominated the MP3 market for the last decade with the iPod and outperformed the PC market at 3:1 in Q3:2010 is also the most preferred brand of smartphone among 13 to 18 year olds. Apple wins again.   

 

While the Google based Android smartphone has come out of nowhere as the second most preferred brand, the road to dominance will be difficult as long Apple continues to develop products that simply “work” and that young people consider “cool.”

I was watching Nexus One very carefully especially it's direct to consumer implications considering my emphasis on the Open Gardens philosophy. By all accounts, the reception has been luke warm and as the fierce wireless article says, when it is available, Nexus one is not in its original incarnation (through a direct to consumer web site), rather it is sold and distributed through Operators - making it similar to any other phone

So .. What does it mean for the industry as a whole?

Nexus One put Google directly in competition (and indeed conflict) with other handset vendors who adopted Android. So, in that context, I see Nexus One as an experiment and in Google showing what is potentially possible. This is similar to Google strategy of acquiring spectrum Google: Spectrum bid goal was openness, not winning.

These goals are commendable but also commercial in keeping up with the Google business model of advertising(more people use more content and more that content is linked- annotated , the better the advertising model works as long as Google can capture meta data for that content). That philosophy applies to spectrum as it applies to phones .. Others benefit (and some lose) and the customer gets services which they could never dream of before(example Google maps and Google street view)

Whatever you can say about that vision, it certainly works .. And it customers like it ..
This last bit 'customers like it' probably explains the Nexus One status ..
In other words, I see it as an experiment which customers(as of today) did not get (and don't like as such) since they had nothing 'special' to look forward to

Remember that the Web players like Google , Facebook, Twitter and Apple are nothing without their customer fan base(a lesson telcos learnt only too late after the proverbial horse had well and truly bolted from the stable)

There are many factors already discussed such as 'support' by email only for Nexus one, iPhone comparison, not understanding the consumer device market and the experimentation angle ..

However, I would like to add two things to this:

a) Apple succeeded to some extent by the direct billing (through iTunes) which is a sort of direct to consumer strategy. That worked because they had the customer on their side by providing a truly superior product in the iPhone. To get concessions from Operators, we need a truly superior product - which Nexus One was not and nor were the many offerings from Nokia(which explains Nokia's current soul searching).

In other words, the customer is the main driver. If you want to get Operators to change their strategies, get the customer on your side first.. That did not happen with Nexus One.

b) The second point is more subtle. There needs to be ONE main factor for the switch. It's hard to convince customers about MANY benefits. One BIG benefit which MATTERS for customers will do. Most of us had hotmail accounts. Many of us(including me) switched to gmail in a big way. Why? It was more than 'Google'. For me, gmail has one BIG feature which literally gave me something very valuable .. TIME .. And that's the SPAM filter. Nothing else comes even close to it. That alone was enough to justify the move.

So, to conclude, I see Nexus one as an experiment .. But a valuable one in Openness where we can all learn the value of serving the customer.